His morals also include being honest, and he is bothered by what he sees as lies coming from both candidates. A lot of people think things are. Weve never done that before.. The simple answer is that chance effects can be much greater than most people realize. The median household annual income is approximately $20,000 less in the county than it is nationally. To find out more about cookies and change your preferences, visit our, looked to ten allegedly bellwether counties, The Russia-Ukraine War: a challenge to international order, Global Energy Politics and Cost of Living Crisis, The New Normal: a dual track approach to health strategy and policy, Inside the Deal: how the EU got Brexit done. In 2020, Vigo went for Trump by nearly 15 points, roughly the same as in 2016. I feel that if Trump is president again, that will cease. Because the man made a lot of promises in 2016, and I think that he stood up and he kept every one of those promises that he could possibly keep, said Ron Fannin, 69, the local courthouse supervisor. John Hawker, a 74-year-old Port Clinton resident who grew up in Toledo, was sitting at the end of the bar and also weighed in on the state of affairs. Many counties in states that have reliably voted for one party for many cycles are home to counties which have almost always voted for the winner of the election; for example, South Carolina has two strong bellwether counties despite being a reliably Republican state, and California has a number of strong bellwethers in its central valley despite being a reliably Democratic state.. In a video posted to Twitter on Thursday, Trump 2020 Campaign Senior Advisor for Strategy Steve Cortes took a deep dive into the 2020 election data regarding President Donald Trump's overwhelmingly dominant performance in the United States' bellwether counties, adding to the statistical improbability of a Joe Biden electoral victory. Of Wood Countys 92,119 registered voters, 9,479 of them are Democrats, 8,315 are Republicans, and 74,240 are independents, according to numbers from the Board of Elections. Itll be interesting to see who wins Sen. Growth in recent years has been a challenge, if not nonexistent, he said. Given the global context of Russias invasion of Ukraine, they believe higher gas prices and inflation is coming, and theyre not happy about it. dionisia pacquiao net worth; leer un archivo excel en sql server; alix pasquet iii relationship; american gold eagle type 1 vs type 2; sniper spotting scope; Westmoreland County, Virginia, is almost one third black. And the thing is, when they have these laws now that they arent enforcing, what good is another law going to be? Now the places emerging as possible new bellwethers have more racially diverse populations. Tammy said that with the lakefront area being a popular spot for fishing and tourists, the price of gas always has been higher than average. We have to stand and fight for the constitution our forefathers created. Well just have to wait and see who will go into the building. They've been dubbed "bellwether counties" and until this year,. "The Wall Street Journal and The Epoch Times independently analyzed the results of 19 counties around the United States that have nearly perfect presidential voting records over the last 40 years. The way he spoke to President Trump bothers me even more, because hes speaking to my president. Most of the jobs up here are part-time or seasonal. Over the same time period, Democrat registrations have dipped from 9,526 to 7,576. What are bellwether counties and can they actually predict elections One major planned project in Wood County pulled outPeloton, an exercise bike and interactive exercise equipment manufacturer. Things have been bad for so long, they dont care.. Weve always had a mix of voters, Baumgardner added. He was an apprentice and then a journeyman in a local steamfitters union for about 10 years before he was laid off. The Republican has been a big supporter of water quality on Lake Erie, and were looking to get another candidate that sees that as a priority.. She sees the economy, trade, China, and the Middle East peace deal as top issues. Unbridled Evil: The Corrupt Reign of Jiang Zemin in China. Bellwether Counties Historical Performance 1984 to 2020 For example, a county might be said to be a "bellwether county" if it consistently votes the same way as the majority of the state. Of their nineteen bellwethers, only Essex County, Vermont can be considered as a political competitive county. Shepherd said being able to bear arms is of particular importance now and she fears Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden would restrict that right. He is just outspoken and doesnt filter what he is saying.. Of the 17 bellwether counties the margin of win by President Trump was 16 points on average! Charlotte Cuthbertson is a senior reporter with The Epoch Times who primarily covers border security and the opioid crisis. bellwether counties epoch times (Cara Ding/The Epoch Times). But not only are bellwethers not really predictors of future success, the likelihood of finding long streaks of prior predictive success has gone down. In particular, recent research which identified nineteen bellwether counties found that they tended to be whiter, older, less educated, have lower median incomes, have a lower percentage of workers in the labor force, and have higher rates of vacant housing than the country as a whole. These counties also disproportionately came from the Midwest and the Northeast. Nothing has changed regarding the date of the May 3 primary election, Baumgardner said. Wood (population 132,248), and Ottawa, are known as bellwether counties for picking the presidential candidate who wins the White Housebut it is uncertain whether Wood County can maintain. Both Hidalgo and Valencia County, New Mexico, are close to 60 percent Hispanic, while Westmoreland County in Virginia is almost one-third black. Why is belief in the existence of bellwether states and counties (especially the latter) so strong? Its population is 60% white and 27% Black. The 19 bellwethers tend to be poorer, whiter, older, and less educated than the rest of the country, according to an August paper by researchers from the University of Denver and University of New Hampshire. Michael Sakal is a former reporter for The Epoch Times. They write that the electoral record shows that not only are bellwether counties poor predictors of who will win a presidential election, rising polarization means that their ability to predict long streaks of elections has been in decline over the last two decades. Supreme Court nominees also matter a lot to Myers in this election. Supply chain issues also have plagued the restaurant industry, not just with food such as chicken and other meats, but also supplies, Chamberlin said. Terry Titchner, 70, said hes voting for Biden because he doesnt trust Trump. It will cycle through. Hawker said although Ottawa County tends to lean more Republican, he has noticed that a lot of senior citizens who are Democrats have moved into the area. I cannot support a candidate that is not pro-life. Pro-life is one of the top items on his list of issues. She only voted once, at the urging of her husband, when they got married about 30 years ago. US election results: Why the most accurate bellwether counties were Our roads need to be fixed. By Cara Ding. We need to address the economy and safety and security, Hawker said. Fact check: What's true about the 2020 election, vote counting We can place an order and immediately get an email back of what they dont have. I have not seen any division like this [before]., I believe that is because of our current president, so my main issue is that he does not stay president.. He cares about the American people.. Were offering a $250 bonus if someone can work 20 or more hours during their first four weeks of employment with us. Sawyer County, Wisconsin, and Clallam County, Washington, have substantial Native American populations, the authors said. In a 2020 article, Daniel Zimny-Schmitt and Michael Harris look for bellwether counties in the period 1980-2016 and identify nineteen such. Donald Trump 16 out of 39 counties which are considered significant bellwethers. Delaware's Kent County last missed in 1992. In Terre Haute, 52-year-old Scott Hamilton said the main issue for him in this election is how divided the nation is; he said Trump is mostly to blame. Swept up in unproven voter fraud claims, the Shasta County Board of Supervisors has upended the county's election process, canceling its contract with . The insulting back and forth really bothers me about any candidate, Myers said. We know that President Donald Trump won 18 of the 19 historic bellwether counties those that have regularly predicted the outcome of presidential contests. With the price of gas going up, Zulch is afraid of a return to high fuel prices caused by Hurricane Katrina in Louisiana 16 years ago and that soaring costs will again hurt his business. Its crazy. Hes organizing a Second Amendment rally in Ridgway for Oct. 17 to make sure gun rights are fresh in peoples minds when they head to the ballot box. "Statistically Impossible" That 19 of 20 Bellweather Counties All Voted Greg Abbott of Texas as a possible presidential candidate. Mainstream polls are suggesting a Pennsylvania win for Biden, but, if the 2016 polls were anything to go by, theyre about as useful as a screen door on a submarine. He didnt vote in 2016 either. They mostly favor who they believe would be best suited to tackle the issues at hand. The researchers also mapped all U.S. counties (over 3,000) by their bellwether scoretheir record of voting for the overall winner in each of the previous 10 presidential electionsgiving progressively larger weight to more recent elections. In 2020, amid widespread accusations of Democrat cheating, these bellwethers were not even close checking in at a mind-blowing 6%! There were lines of boaters with banners and flagsthere mustve been about 2,000 boats full of people participating, Tammy added. Today, there are also 14,183 independents registered to vote and five libertarians, according to the Ottawa Countys Board of Elections website. MORE PROOF OF FRAUD: 16 of 17 Bellwether Counties Went for Trump HAS Nothing is free, Hawker said. He isnt happy that Biden called Trump names during the first debate. In 2020, all but one of the bellwethers picked President Donald Trump by a margin of some 16 points on average. Hamilton had already cast his vote for Biden on the first day of early voting. Eleven of the 19 were located in just six Midwestern states, and Wisconsin alone is home to four, they said. Its too big. Although longtime county residents say that Wood County is in pretty good shape overallas there has been some recent industrial development on its north sideit also has been affected by national issues such as inflation, the price of gasoline, supply chain issues, and workforce shortages. TRENDING: Meet Samuel Armes - Groomed by the CIA and FBI and Author of the Original "1776 Returns" FED-SURRECTION Document - That He . With all the inflation, its challenging, and can be tricky to run a business, Miller, 58, said. In the southern area just off Interstate 75 sits Bowling Green, the county seat and home of Bowling Green State University and Doyt L. Perry Stadium, where the Falcons draw large crowds in the Mid-American Conference. Right after we saw the results of the election and that Trump had lost, we were all like, what the hell?, said Tammy, a bartender at Wee Willys Sports Pub in Marblehead. In 2016, nearly 100 million eligible Americans didnt vote. You expect the price of things to go up, thats inflation for you, Tammy said. Political scientists have a term for counties or states that anticipate how the rest of the country will votebellwethers. The county is more white than the rest of the nationabout, nationally, according to census data. If he wouldve just kept his mouth shut , Im not happy with the way things are now, Beggs added. And its just so easy to snowball it to where chances are, if youre not very careful and work very hard in the other direction, you may just [continue a life of crime].. Those are the biggest issuesthe economy and national security. Racine County, WI might be the single best bellwether: if it called all the elections with missing data elections correctly, it would have 86% correct. (Charlotte Cuthbertson/The Epoch Times). Yet unofficial vote counts now show Biden in the lead and with enough electoral votes to claim the presidency. This includes personalizing content and advertising. People need to get a job, get out and work. Since he became a Christian in the mid-1990s, he said hes used his moral compass to determine his vote. The state as a whole is going more Republican, Wood County Board of Elections Director Julie Baumgardner told The Epoch Times. It doesnt matter whether you are a Republican or a Democrat, youre going to get a crook. Chamberlin, who has worked for the regional chain for 17 years, estimates he has saved about $2,000 in gas over the past year. 2020: Trump - 59.1%, Biden - 38.5. Port Clinton, Ohio. RIDGWAY, Pa.Tucked into a wooded valley in north-central Pennsylvania is the bellwether borough of Ridgway, the county seat of Elk County. Medicare is becoming a joke. In politics, the term often applies in a metaphorical sense to characterize a geographic region where political tendencies match in microcosm those of a wider area, such that the result of an election in the former region might predict the eventual result in the latter. Tisdell wanted to find out for himself, so he began to do his own research, reading mainstream news on both sides, as well as reports by independent citizen journalists. We have loads that sometimes dont cover the fuel costs., During the COVID pandemic, nobody was on the roads. Bellwether County Portends a Red Pennsylvania in 2020 Election Our model also links this decline to increases in polarization. The All-Or-Nothing Bellwether: These are states or counties that choose the national winner every time. Over the past nearly 40 years, presidential elections have observed an intriguing phenomenon: 19 counties in the nation have always voted for the winner, be it Republican or Democrat. But hes pleased with how Trump has run the country and is eager to reelect him. The ones he lost went to Biden by a margin of about four points on average. That streak ended in 2020 when voters cast the highest percentage of ballots for Republican Donald Trump14,628 (60.83 percent) to Democrat Joe Bidens 9,008 (37.46 percent). Hes concerned a Biden administration would mean an end to fracking, higher gas prices, and utility bill hikes. Where there used to be eight auto plants in Wayne County now there is only one, the GMC Truck plant, he said. This includes personalizing content and advertising. In 2020, all but one of the bellwethers picked President Donald Trump by a margin of some 16 points on average. I think he is more for giving to the people.. Theyre scared. There Are No Bellwether Counties | HuffPost Latest News Im not happy with either party. 0:00 0:00. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. Youre not getting anybody perfect. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. Fitch, who grew up in foster homes and went on to put himself through college, has owned and run the Summit Fireside Lodge and Grill for 32 years. The 19 bellwether counties are highlighted in red. Because of supply chain issues, its also difficult to find parts, Miller said. For example, if we call a county a bellwether if it has one less correct match than the number of elections in a sequence, we will get nearly 19 bellwethers even in a set of eleven elections, and in a set of seven elections, we will see 197 bellwethers far more than the 27 we would find under our assumptions when we require a bellwether to have an unblemished record of predictive success. A number of fertilizer plants closed across the country last year due to natural gas shortages. Our politicians need to look on both sides of the fence and work together. Jim Hoft is the founder and editor of The Gateway Pundit, one of the top conservative news outlets in America. By registering for the newsletter, you agree to the, New Crew From US, Russia, and UAE Arrives at Space Station, LIVE NOW: Biden Awards Medal of Honor to Retired Army Col. Paris Davis, We Have to Pay Our Sins: Lawmakers Must Negotiate Way Out of US Debt Crisis: Sen. Manchin, Suspect Charged After Chicago Officer Dies After Shootout, Nevada Approves $330 Million in Tesla Tax Abatements Over Gigafactory Expansion. SACRAMENTO . Shortages are all over the place, Miller said. First, we can readily imagine that some counties demographically/politically mirror the nation, and thus monitoring this small set of counties closely would tell us with high predictive reliability what will happen nationally. Here, a farming operation is pictured in Bowling Green, Ohio in Wood County, a bellwether county in America's Heartland experiencing problems such as inflation and high gas prices, affecting every day life.
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